Yes, I found a flaw …

That is precisely the reason I was shocked because I’d been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well

We cannot expect perfection in any area where forecasting is required.

We have to do our best but not expect infallibility or omniscience.

If we are right 60 percent of the time in forecasting, we are doing exceptionally well; that means we are wrong 40 percent of the time,” Greenspan said. “Forecasting never gets to the point where it is 100 percent accurate.

What went wrong with global economic policies that had worked so effectively for nearly four decades?

he “breakdown” was clearest in the market where securities firms packaged home mortgages into debt sold on to other investors.

As much as I would prefer it otherwise, in this financial environment I see no choice but to require that all securitizers retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue.


Alan Greenspan (23 Oct 2008)