Stock del giorno: Volkswagen AG

Volkswagen AG more than doubled in Frankfurt trading as Porsche SE’s plan to achieve a 75 percent stake in the carmaker prompted short-sellers to purchase from a shrinking pool of stock to close their positions.

Volkswagen jumped 309.15 euros, or 147 percent, to 520 euros. The stock has more than tripled this year, valuing the Wolfsburg, Germany-based company at 145 billion euros ($181.9 billion). Investors including hedge funds may hold 8.67 billion euros in borrowed stock that they must buy and return, according to Bloomberg calculations based on estimates by London-based research firm Data Explorers.

Read the full story here.



Oil fall $1 to lowest since May 2007, demand weighs

Oil prices fell nearly $1 to an 18-month low on Monday as slumping demand and the growing financial crisis offset OPEC plans to cut output.
U.S. crude fell 93 cents to $63.22 a barrel, the lowest settlement price since since May 29, 2007. London Brent crude settled down 64 cents to $61.41 a barrel.
Oil prices have dropped by nearly 60 percent from a record high $147.27 a barrel in July as global economic turmoil dents world fuel consumption.
Demand has fallen in the United States, the world’s top energy consumer, and in other industrial countries as the credit crisis infects the wider economy and begins to spread to emerging markets.
In China, apparent oil demand rose by just over 2 percent in September, the slowest growth in 10 months.

Crude Oil Truth

I am not ready to step up to add the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (AMEX: USO) to our model portfolio just yet, but I am getting much friendlier to the idea technically. 

Read the full story here.

Eurozone Composite Output Index Hits Record Low

Indicating that the 15-nation economy is sliding into a recession, the Eurozone flash composite output index, manufacturing and manufacturing output purchasing managers indexes, or PMIs, fell to new record lows in October. At the same time, the services PMI declined to its lowest level since October 2001.

Continue reading here

Yes, I found a flaw …

That is precisely the reason I was shocked because I’d been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well

We cannot expect perfection in any area where forecasting is required.

We have to do our best but not expect infallibility or omniscience.

If we are right 60 percent of the time in forecasting, we are doing exceptionally well; that means we are wrong 40 percent of the time,” Greenspan said. “Forecasting never gets to the point where it is 100 percent accurate.

What went wrong with global economic policies that had worked so effectively for nearly four decades?

he “breakdown” was clearest in the market where securities firms packaged home mortgages into debt sold on to other investors.

As much as I would prefer it otherwise, in this financial environment I see no choice but to require that all securitizers retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue.


Alan Greenspan (23 Oct 2008)

Lo stato dell’economia in Italia… è “Svalutation”

L’Istat ha reso notI i dati di agosto sullo stato dell’economia italiana ( Gli indicatori (su base annua) evidenziano una performance tutt’altro che incoraggiante:

– fatturato dell’industria -11,00%;
– ordini dell’industria -5,20%;
– produzione industriale -5,30%.

Anche nel commercio estero, comparto dove tradizionalmente siamo forti, il saldo dei flussi da e verso l’europa e’ stato negativo per 25 milioni di euro (+294 milioni nello stesso periodo del 2007); più in dettaglio i flussi commerciali hanno visto una forte contrazione sia delle esportazioni che delle importazioni:

– esportazioni -12,4%;
– importazioni -10,3%.

Anche il saldo commerciale complessivo (da e verso UE più resto del mondo) e’ stato negativo per 2,116 milioni di euro.

Intanto però i prezzi al consumo continuano a salire: secondo l’Istat l’indice nazionale dei prezzi al consumo per l’intera collettività e comprensivo dei tabacchi (l’inflazione per intenderci) relativo al mese di agosto si è assestato a +3,8% (+3,7% senza tabacchi).

Per concludere l’economia sta andando male e l’inflazione è ancora alta: svalutation?

Bloomberg per iPhone



Lehman Brothers in New York


Lehman Brothers in New York, inserito originariamente da jasonsmith.

Chapter 11