Archive for the ‘Finanza’ Category

Default in Today’s Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Undesirable, and Unlikely

Wednesday, September 1st, 2010

The state of the public finances has worsened substantially in the main advanced economies as a result of the 2008–09 global financial and economic crisis. For some “peripheral” European countries, market participants and some commentators occasionally seem to believe that default (here intended as some form of debt restructuring) will sooner or later inevitably occur. Concerns about fiscal solvency in those countries have been reflected in financial market pressures, large default risk premiums on sovereign bonds, and downgrades by rating agencies. At the time of writing (late August 2010), credit default swap spreads are about 900 basis points in Greece and 300 basis points in Ireland and Portugal. In general, volatility remains high and every auction of government paper—especially in Europe, including in the largest countries—is closely monitored to discern possible triggers of abrupt market reactions.
In our view, the risk of debt restructuring is currently significantly overestimated. Although it is generally wise to assume that market developments reflect economic fundamentals, market overreaction does occur from time to time, with adverse implications for countries’ borrowing costs and debt dynamics. For example, considering data on sovereign bond spreads over the past decades, markets sounded false alarms in the vast majority of episodes.

[...] challenge stems mainly from the advanced economies’ large primary deficits, not from a high average interest rate on debt. Thus, default would not significantly reduce the need for major fiscal adjustment. In contrast, the economies that defaulted in recent decades did so primarily as a result of high debt servicing costs, often in the context of major external shocks. We conclude that default would not be in the interest of the citizens of the countries in question. Fiscal adjustment supported by reforms that enhance economic growth is a more effective response.

Link

Firms exposed to Madoff’s alleged fraud

Saturday, December 13th, 2008

Following a list of some of the firms exposed to the alleged fraud:

FAIRFIELD SENTRY LTD

The $7.3 billion hedge fund run by Walter Noel’s Fairfield Greenwich Group had accounts with Madoff Investment Securities.

KINGATE GLOBAL FUND LTD

The $2.8 billion hedge fund run by Kingate Management Ltd had invested in Madoff Investment Securities.

UBS

The investment bank unit of the Swiss financial group has a limited and insignificant counterparty exposure, its spokesman told Reuters.

BENEDICT HENTSCH

The Swiss private bank said its exposure to products linked to Bernard Madoff amounted to 56 million Swiss francs ($47 million), or less than 5 percent of the bank’s assets under management.

PIONEER INVESTMENTS

UniCredit SpA’s fund management unit is exposed through its Primeo Select hedge fund, according to two people familiar with the matter.

BRAMDEAN ALTERNATIVES LTD

The UK asset manager, headed by well-known fund manager Nicola Horlick, said almost 10 percent of its holdings were exposed to Madoff.

Bramdean said it had two holdings that maintain trading accounts with Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities that represented 9.5 percent of its net asset value at the end of October.

TV network CNBC also reported that the following firms were clients of Madoff:

* Tremont Capital Management — The manager of funds of hedge funds portfolios could not be reached for comment.

* Nomura Holdings Inc — The Japanese brokerage house did not return a call seeking comment.

* Palm Beach Country Club — The institution did not return a call seeking comment.

* Santander’s Optimal Fund — The unit of Spanish bank Santander could not be reached for comment.

* Sterling Equities — The investment firm, owner of the New York Mets baseball team, did not return a call seeking comment.

* Bank Syz — The Swiss bank dedicated to asset management could not be reached for comment.

* Lombard Odier — The Swiss private bank could not be reached for comment.

source: Yahoo News

Ecuador debt default

Saturday, December 13th, 2008

I gave the order not to pay the interest and to go into default,” Mr Correa told reporters in Guayaquil. ”We know very well who we are up against — real monsters.

Ecuador declared default on its 2012 global bonds on Friday over charges the debt was illegally contracted by past governments, leaving investors to deal with its second debt default in less than a decade.

President Rafael Correa’s decision to not pay a $31 million coupon on the government’s 2012 bonds means the country’s two other global bond issues due in 2015 and 2030 are also considered in default, according to cross-default clauses in the contracts.

Possible scenarios after Ecuador debt default

Ecuador defaults on sovereign bonds

Don’t ask, don’t tell

Friday, December 12th, 2008

The original “Don’t ask, don’t tell” Madoff story
Barrons had this story in 2001 but no-one wanted to listen
:

Two years ago, at a hedge-fund conference in New York, attendees were asked to name some of their favorite and most-respected hedge-fund managers. Neither George Soros nor Julian Robertson merited a single mention. But one manager received lavish praise: Bernard Madoff.

Folks on Wall Street know Bernie Madoff well. His brokerage firm, Madoff Securities, helped kick-start the Nasdaq Stock Market in the early 1970s and is now one of the top three market makers in Nasdaq stocks. Madoff Securities is also the third-largest firm matching buyers and sellers of New York Stock Exchange-listed securities. Charles Schwab, Fidelity Investments and a slew of discount brokerages all send trades through Madoff.

But what few on the Street know is that Bernie Madoff also manages $6 billion-to-$7 billion for wealthy individuals. That’s enough to rank Madoff’s operation among the world’s three largest hedge funds, according to a May 2001 report in MAR Hedge, a trade publication.

What’s more, these private accounts, have produced compound average annual returns of 15% for more than a decade. Remarkably, some of the larger, billion-dollar Madoff-run funds have never had a down year.

When Barron’s asked Madoff Friday how he accomplishes this, he said, “It’s a proprietary strategy. I can’t go into it in great detail.”

Nor were the firms that market Madoff’s funds forthcoming when contacted earlier. “It’s a private fund. And so our inclination has been not to discuss its returns,” says Jeffrey Tucker, partner and co-founder of Fairfield Greenwich, a New York City-based hedge-fund marketer. “Why Barron’s would have any interest in this fund I don’t know.” One of Fairfield Greenwich’s most sought-after funds is Fairfield Sentry Limited. Managed by Bernie Madoff, Fairfield Sentry has assets of $3.3 billion.

A Madoff hedge-fund offering memorandums describes his strategy this way: “Typically, a position will consist of the ownership of 30-35 S&P 100 stocks, most correlated to that index, the sale of out-of-the-money calls on the index and the purchase of out-of-the-money puts on the index. The sale of the calls is designed to increase the rate of return, while allowing upward movement of the stock portfolio to the strike price of the calls. The puts, funded in large part by the sale of the calls, limit the portfolio’s downside.”

Among options traders, that’s known as the “split-strike conversion” strategy. In layman’s terms, it means Madoff invests primarily in the largest stocks in the S&P 100 index — names like General Electric , Intel and Coca-Cola . At the same time, he buys and sells options against those stocks. For example, Madoff might purchase shares of GE and sell a call option on a comparable number of shares — that is, an option to buy the shares at a fixed price at a future date. At the same time, he would buy a put option on the stock, which gives him the right to sell shares at a fixed price at a future date.

The strategy, in effect, creates a boundary on a stock, limiting its upside while at the same time protecting against a sharp decline in the share price. When done correctly, this so-called market-neutral strategy produces positive returns no matter which way the market goes.

Using this split-strike conversion strategy, Fairfield Sentry Limited has had only four down months since inception in 1989. In 1990, Fairfield Sentry was up 27%. In the ensuing decade, it returned no less than 11% in any year, and sometimes as high as 18%. Last year, Fairfield Sentry returned 11.55% and so far in 2001, the fund is up 3.52%.

Those returns have been so consistent that some on the Street have begun speculating that Madoff’s market-making operation subsidizes and smooths his hedge-fund returns.

How might Madoff Securities do this? Access to such a huge capital base could allow Madoff to make much larger bets — with very little risk — than it could otherwise. It would work like this: Madoff Securities stands in the middle of a tremendous river of orders, which means that its traders have advance knowledge, if only by a few seconds, of what big customers are buying and selling. By hopping on the bandwagon, the market maker could effectively lock in profits. In such a case, throwing a little cash back to the hedge funds would be no big deal.

When Barron’s ran that scenario by Madoff, he dismissed it as “ridiculous.”

Still, some on Wall Street remain skeptical about how Madoff achieves such stunning double-digit returns using options alone. The recent MAR Hedge report, for example, cited more than a dozen hedge fund professionals, including current and former Madoff traders, who questioned why no one had been able to duplicate Madoff’s returns using this strategy. Likewise, three option strategists at major investment banks told Barron’s they couldn’t understand how Madoff churns out such numbers. Adds a former Madoff investor: “Anybody who’s a seasoned hedge- fund investor knows the split-strike conversion is not the whole story. To take it at face value is a bit naïve.”

Madoff dismisses such skepticism. “Whoever tried to reverse-engineer, he didn’t do a good job. If he did, these numbers would not be unusual.” Curiously, he charges no fees for his money-management services. Nor does he take a cut of the 1.5% fees marketers like Fairfield Greenwich charge investors each year. Why not? “We’re perfectly happy to just earn commissions on the trades,” he says.

Perhaps so. But consider the sheer scope of the money Madoff would appear to be leaving on the table. A typical hedge fund charges 1% of assets annually, plus 20% of profits. On a $6 billion fund generating 15% annual returns, that adds up to $240 million a year.

The lessons of Long-Term Capital Management’s collapse are that investors need, or should want, transparency in their money manager’s investment strategy. But Madoff’s investors rave about his performance — even though they don’t understand how he does it. “Even knowledgeable people can’t really tell you what he’s doing,” one very satisfied investor told Barron’s. “People who have all the trade confirmations and statements still can’t define it very well. The only thing I know is that he’s often in cash” when volatility levels get extreme. This investor declined to be quoted by name. Why? Because Madoff politely requests that his investors not reveal that he runs their money.

“What Madoff told us was, ‘If you invest with me, you must never tell anyone that you’re invested with me. It’s no one’s business what goes on here,’” says an investment manager who took over a pool of assets that included an investment in a Madoff fund. “When he couldn’t explain \ how they were up or down in a particular month,” he added, “I pulled the money out.”

For investors who aren’t put off by such secrecy, it should be noted that Fairfield and Kingate Management both market funds managed by Madoff, as does Tremont Advisers , a publicly traded hedge-fund advisory firm.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB989019667829349012.html

Madoff Charged in $50 Billion Fraud at Advisory Firm

Friday, December 12th, 2008

Bernard Madoff, founder and president of a New York firm that invested funds for wealthy individuals, hedge funds and other institutions, was charged with operating what he told employees was a long-running $50 billion Ponzi scheme in what may be one of the largest frauds in history.

from Wikipedia:

A Ponzi scheme usually offers abnormally high short-term returns in order to entice new investors. The perpetuation of the high returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises (and pays) requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors in order to keep the scheme going.

The system is destined to collapse because there are little or no underlying earnings from the money received by the promoter. However, the scheme is often interrupted by legal authorities before it collapses, because a Ponzi scheme is suspected and/or because the promoter is selling unregistered securities. As more investors become involved, the likelihood of the scheme coming to the attention of authorities increases.

Tempi difficili…

Saturday, November 22nd, 2008

 

 

Baaaaang

Thursday, November 20th, 2008

Credit default swap of the day: Glitnir

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

Final Price: Snr 3%, Sub 0,125%. Fellow Icelandic bank Kaupthing’s credit event auction is to be held tomorrow.

Credit Default Swaps: size of the market

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

From DTCC web site:

Reported estimates of the size of the credit default swap market have so far been based on surveys. These surveys tend to overstate the size of the market due to each party to a trade separately reporting its own side. Thus, when two parties to a single $10 million dollar trade each report their “side” of the trade, the amount reported is $20 million, which overstates the actual size by a factor of two since both reports relate to a single $10 million contract. When examining the outstanding amount of actual contracts registered in the Warehouse (not separately reported “sides”) as of October 9, 2008, credit default swap contracts registered in the Warehouse totaled approximately $34.8 trillion (in US Dollar equivalents). This is down significantly from the approximately $44 trillion that were registered in the Warehouse at the end of April this year.

Interesting is the size of the market Related to Mortgages:

Less than 1% of credit default swap contracts currently registered in the Warehouse relate to particular residential mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage-related index products also have some components relating to residential mortgages and, as a whole, also constitute a relatively small fraction of total credit default swaps registered in the Warehouse.

The Mythology Of Credit Default Swaps

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

Here we have another interesting reading from Charles Davì:

Pundits from all corners have been chiming in on the debate over derivatives. And much like the discourse that has dominated the rest of human history, reason, temperance, and facts play no role in the debate. Rather, the spectacular, outrage, and irrational blame have been the big winners lately. As a consequence, credit default swaps have been singled out as particularly dangerous to the financial system. Why credit default swaps have been targeted as opposed to other derivatives is not entirely clear to me, although I do have some theories. In this article I debunk many of the common myths about credit default swaps that are circulating in the popular press.

Charles continues the article outlining some features he calls “myths”:

  • The CDS Market Is Not The Largest Thing Known To Humanity
  • Credit Default Swaps Do Not Facilitate “Gambling”
  • The Credit Default Swap Market Is Not An Insurance Market
  • Continue reading the article of Charles here, it really worth your time.

    Asta del giorno: Landsbanki

    Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

    È iniziata male ed è finita peggio: Final Price per il settlement dei CDS 1.25% per carta senior, 0.125% per carta subordinata LT2. Peggio di così non credo si sia mai visto.

    Credit default swap del giorno: Landsbanki

    Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

    Initial Landsbanki Senior DEbt Recovery Rate Set at 3.375

    … persino peggio, ma molto peggio, del fixing su Lehman.

    The Fed’s rate at zero? It’s no longer a far-fetched idea

    Thursday, October 30th, 2008

    Just a day after the Federal Reserve dropped its key short-term interest rate to 1% — matching the generational low reached in 2003-04 — the betting is intensifying on another cut.

    Trading in futures contracts on the federal funds rate, the Fed’s benchmark, implies a 51.4% probability that the central bank will slash the rate to 0.50% on or before its next meeting on Dec. 16, according to Bloomberg News data.

    On Wednesday, the probability of a cut to 0.50% was 32%.

    At a minimum, the futures market expects the Fed to take its rate down to 0.75% on Dec. 16.

    Continue reading here

    DTCC Successfully Closes Out Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy

    Thursday, October 30th, 2008

    The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), the leading post-trade clearance and settlement infrastructure for the U.S. capital markets, announced today that it successfully closed out over $500 billion in market participants’ exposure from the Lehman Brothers, Inc. (Lehman) bankruptcy which occurred the week of Sept. 22. This was the largest close-out in DTCC’s history.

    Full Story Here

    Fed Cuts Rate to 1% to Avert Prolonged Recession

    Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

    Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 1 percent, matching a half-century low, in an effort to avert the worst U.S. economic downturn in the postwar era.

    “Downside risks to growth remain,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today in a statement in Washington. “Recent policy actions, including today’s rate reduction, coordinated interest-rate cuts by central banks, extraordinary liquidity measures, and official steps to strengthen financial systems, should help over time to improve credit conditions and promote a return to moderate economic growth.”

    Central bankers worldwide are trying to revive credit and stop a self-reinforcing downturn in consumer spending and bank lending from triggering a global recession. Today’s decision follows the half-point reduction the Fed coordinated with the European Central Bank and four other central banks on Oct. 8. Borrowing costs were pared today in Norway and China.

    The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate last quarter, the most since the 2001 recession, the Commerce Department’s report on gross domestic product will probably show tomorrow. Economists expect the slump to persist in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate.

    `Economy Weakens’

    “If the economy weakens further, it may open the door for another 25 or 50 basis points in December,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina.”

    Plunging commodity prices, including a 54 decline in the cost of oil from a record in July, have eased inflation pressures.

    “The committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters to levels consistent with price stability,” the FOMC said in today’s statement.

    The vote was unanimous. The Fed also lowered the discount rate a half point to 1.25 percent.

    While cutting the main rate during the past 13 months from 5.25 percent, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, 54, has created six loan programs channeling at least $700 billion in cash and collateral into money markets as of Oct. 22.

    “This Federal Reserve has been extremely aggressive in terms of providing liquidity,” Frederic Mishkin, a former Fed governor and now a Columbia University professor, said in a Bloomberg Television interview before the announcement.

    Confidence Weakens

    Still, consumer confidence tumbled this month to a record low, and orders for durable goods, excluding automobiles and aircraft, dropped for a second straight month in September, reports showed this week. Home prices in 20 U.S. cities declined 16.6 percent in August from a year earlier as foreclosures climbed, according to the S%26P/Case-Shiller home price index. The Standard %26 Poor’s 500 Stock Index is down 36 percent this year.

    “The intensification of financial market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on spending, partly by further reducing the ability of households and businesses to obtain credit,” the Fed’s statement said. “The pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly.”

    The credit crisis that began in August 2007 with rising foreclosure rates has led to the collapse or forced mergers of some of Wall Street’s biggest firms. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy last month, while the government seized control of American International Group Inc. and put Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under conservatorship. Wachovia Corp. agreed this month to be acquired by Wells Fargo %26 Co.

    Global financial institutions have reported $680 billion in writedowns and credit losses on home loans, mortgage-backed securities and related assets.

    Funding Costs

    The spread between the cost of overnight loans in New York and three-month dollar loans in London widened to 4.02 percent on Oct. 10 as investors fled risk following Lehman’s Sept. 15 bankruptcy. The spread averaged 0.27 percentage point for all of last year. It has since fallen back to 2.5 percentage points.

    Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson gained congressional approval this month for the use of taxpayer funds for a $700 billion bank rescue. The Treasury plans to use some of the funds in the Troubled Asset Relief Program to buy equity stakes in banks.

    The Fed redoubled its aid this month, agreeing to finance the commercial paper issuance of General Electric Co. and other corporations and help money-market mutual funds raise cash to meet shareholder redemptions.

    Fed’s Balance Sheet

    The central bank’s new loan programs have expanded assets on its balance sheet by 104 percent during the past year to $1.804 trillion, or 12.6 percent of GDP.

    Borrowing costs have remained high. U.S. 30-year mortgage rates tracked by Freddie Mac were 6.04 percent last week versus 6.07 percent on Jan. 3. Banks are unlikely to compete for new loans and offer lower rates so long as the outlook for the economy is dim, economists said.

    “We are in an environment where they lower rates, but then spreads widen so you get no net effect,” Vincent Reinhart, former director of the Fed Board’s Division of Monetary Affairs who is now a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said before the decision. “We are in a recession.”

    Fed officials provided their forecasts for this year and the subsequent three years at the two-day meeting. The uncertainties surrounding the Fed’s forecast are “unusually large,” and the economy may experience subpar growth “for several quarters,” Bernanke told the House Budget Committee on Oct. 20.

    The economy “looks terrible,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc., said before the announcement. “Consumer spending is going to be very negative in the fourth quarter, even with gasoline prices falling.”

    Policy Tools

    Now that their target rate is so low, Fed officials may have discussed alternative policy strategies such as the possibility of keeping rates low on short- and medium-term notes. Bernanke, as a Fed governor, was the top central bank official on research into “non-traditional” policy tools between 2002 and 2004, when the central bank last cut the benchmark lending rate to 1 percent.

    The Fed has lost some control over the amount of reserves in the banking system because the total lending in some of its programs are driven by market demand. As a result, the federal funds rate has traded below its target every day since the Oct. 8 emergency rate cut.

    The central bank raised the floor on the benchmark lending rate and said on Oct. 22 that interest on excess reserves would be equal to the federal funds rate minus 0.35 percentage point. The previous floor was 0.75 percentage point below the federal funds rate. Still, the move hasn’t closed the gap between the target rate and the market rate.

    Faissola: «Banche solide, non serve l’ingresso del Tesoro»

    Tuesday, October 28th, 2008

    Le banche italiane hanno «una buona capitalizzazione» e non serve l’ingresso del Tesoro per la ripatrimonializzazione degli Istituti consentito dal decreto legge varato dal Governo. Lo ha detto il presidente dell’Abi, Corrado Faissola, intervenendo in audizione davanti alla commissione Finanze del Senato sulla crisi dei mercati finanziari.

    «Per quanto riguarda la misura relativa al rafforzamento patrimoniale – ha detto – riteniamo che la solidità del sistema bancario italiano non dovrebbe rendere necessario sfruttare l’opportunità offerta dal provvedimento varato dal Governo che giudichiamo peraltro ben strutturato e consideriamo una ulteriore rete di sicurezza ed un ulteriore strumento prudenziale».

    Per Faissola, «occorrerebbe, peraltro, consentire una maggiore diversificazione degli strumenti finanziari a disposizione dello Stato per concorrere, se necessario, al rafforzamento del patrimonio di base delle banche».

    Il sole 24 ore (Link).

    Iceland Raises Key Rate by 6 Percentage Points

    Tuesday, October 28th, 2008

    Iceland’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 6 percentage points to 18 percent on Tuesday, two weeks after it had eased policy to soften the impact of the country’s financial meltdown.

    The move, which one economist called extreme, was the latest by authorities to prop up the country’s frozen currency and markets, offering investors a high return for putting money back into the North Atlantic island’s crippled financial system.

    Full story here.

    Performance a 52 settimane in Italia e Giappone

    Tuesday, October 28th, 2008

    -54% … punto più punto meno. Anche qui non si scherza!

     

    Performance a 52 settimane negli USA

    Tuesday, October 28th, 2008

    Punto più punto meno con questa vol si tratta di quisquiglie… diciamo che -40% non è male!

     

    ComPsych Poll: Vast Majority of Employees Losing Sleep Over Financial Worries

    Tuesday, October 28th, 2008

    Some 92 percent of employees say financial worries are keeping them up at night, according to a poll released by ComPsych Corporation today. Only 8 percent of employees described themselves as “not worried.”

    If fellow workers seem groggier or grumpier than usual in the mornings, they are probably losing sleep over the global financial crisis.

    Full story here or here.

    Wikipedia per iPhone e Credit Crunch

    Tuesday, October 28th, 2008

    Applicazione interessante di questo utile strumento…

     

     

    Stock del giorno: Volkswagen AG

    Monday, October 27th, 2008

    Volkswagen AG more than doubled in Frankfurt trading as Porsche SE’s plan to achieve a 75 percent stake in the carmaker prompted short-sellers to purchase from a shrinking pool of stock to close their positions.

    Volkswagen jumped 309.15 euros, or 147 percent, to 520 euros. The stock has more than tripled this year, valuing the Wolfsburg, Germany-based company at 145 billion euros ($181.9 billion). Investors including hedge funds may hold 8.67 billion euros in borrowed stock that they must buy and return, according to Bloomberg calculations based on estimates by London-based research firm Data Explorers.

    Read the full story here.

     

    Petrolio

    Monday, October 27th, 2008

    Oil fall $1 to lowest since May 2007, demand weighs

    Oil prices fell nearly $1 to an 18-month low on Monday as slumping demand and the growing financial crisis offset OPEC plans to cut output.
    U.S. crude fell 93 cents to $63.22 a barrel, the lowest settlement price since since May 29, 2007. London Brent crude settled down 64 cents to $61.41 a barrel.
    Oil prices have dropped by nearly 60 percent from a record high $147.27 a barrel in July as global economic turmoil dents world fuel consumption.
    Demand has fallen in the United States, the world’s top energy consumer, and in other industrial countries as the credit crisis infects the wider economy and begins to spread to emerging markets.
    In China, apparent oil demand rose by just over 2 percent in September, the slowest growth in 10 months.

    Crude Oil Truth

    I am not ready to step up to add the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (AMEX: USO) to our model portfolio just yet, but I am getting much friendlier to the idea technically. 

    Read the full story here.
     

    Ridaglie …

    Friday, October 24th, 2008

    Chiudiamole!

     

    Yes, I found a flaw …

    Thursday, October 23rd, 2008

    That is precisely the reason I was shocked because I’d been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well

    We cannot expect perfection in any area where forecasting is required.

    We have to do our best but not expect infallibility or omniscience.

    If we are right 60 percent of the time in forecasting, we are doing exceptionally well; that means we are wrong 40 percent of the time,” Greenspan said. “Forecasting never gets to the point where it is 100 percent accurate.

    What went wrong with global economic policies that had worked so effectively for nearly four decades?

    he “breakdown” was clearest in the market where securities firms packaged home mortgages into debt sold on to other investors.

    As much as I would prefer it otherwise, in this financial environment I see no choice but to require that all securitizers retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue.

     

    Alan Greenspan (23 Oct 2008)